Some interesting comments by Rudy Giuliani on the future Democratic ticket:
“I believe she will be the nominee, and Senator Obama will be the vice presidential nominee…that’s the candidacy we are going to be facing, and that is a very formidable candidacy,” he said in an interview conducted late last week.
“[Obama’s] kind of earned it,” Giuliani said. “He brings a kind of enthusiasm to the ticket that everyone desires and likes to have.”
I would very much disagree with the Mayor here. I think that it’s highly unlikely that Hillary picks Obama as her veep. The two main arguments against this is that by virtue of Hillary being the first woman with a serious shot at winning the Presidency, she wouldn’t want to jeopardize her chances by adding Barack to the ticket. Also, given that she’s pulled away from Obama to such an extent (she now leads him among African Americans and college-educated urban liberals) that she won’t feel compelled to cater to his supporters, because they’d vote for her over the GOP nominee anyway. This is buttressed by the intriguing speculation that around a quarter of Hillary’s new O3 donors have also contributed to Obama. Everyone wants a piece of the pie.
With that said, I can foresee one scenario where Hillary might be forced to pick Obama as her running mate. If Obama manages to win Iowa, a significant portion of the February 5th primaries, and manges to come close to defeating Hillary, she would be heavily pressured from within the party to put Obama on the ticket (much the same way that Kerry was in regards to Edwards in ‘04). But given that the latest polls have her ahead in all of the early states as well as huge leads nationally, that scenario appears less likely.
As to who I think Hillary would be most likely to pick as her Vice President, I haven’t settled on particular person (and I doubt she has either). Evan Bayh would be the most logical choice considering Mark Warner has taken himself out of the running. But given that Hillary is viewed by Democrats as the most centrist candidate running, picking Mr. Centrist might not be the best idea. If Hillary gets the nomination she’ll want to be free to go into the South and Mountain West without worrying about her left flank undermining her. That means choosing someone who can appeal to skeptical liberals and Red Staters who’re sick of the Bush Administration. If that ends up the case, Jim Webb’s Jacksonian populism might be just the ticket.
4 comments:
The double minority ticket must quite a scary thought for political strategists being that it's never been tried before. If it happens, and in my gut I think it will. it will no doubt become credited for their victory or the culprit of their defeat.
I believe the Dems will do anything to win this time around. Even though Hilary could be overshadowed by Obama at VP, it clearly gives her the best chance to win.
Erik and Nick,
Look at Obama's base of support, African American's and younger college educated liberals. Those are stalwarts of the Democratic Party anyway and they will be anathema to whoever the Republican Party nominee is. So even if Hillary beats Obama, they would still vote for Hillary. Therefore Hillary has nothing to gain by putting Obama on the ticket.
I think the country is ready for a women President, but a women and a black man might be too much. Especially since Hillary's general election campaign will be to blanket the South, Southwest and West with ads to win over skeptical moderates. Jim Webb and Evan Bayh have shown how to win and be popular in those regions as Democrats. Obama actually runs weaker in those areas then the Worst Politician Ever (John Kerry) did in 2004. Hillary is too cunning and cautious of a candidate to put Obama on the ticket unless she has no alternative.
I wasn't speaking strategically, simply from the gut. However, what affects do you think having Obama on the ticket would have on voter turn out. I predict an increase in minority turn out, increase in younger voters, and an increase in racist.... I mean southern republicans voters of low SES. Lol. If my turn out prediction is accurate, Hillary stands to gain allot and the Republicans not so much.
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